●The whole picture
Month
UP
UP · low conviction · draw last month’s high
Week
UP
UP · 2 of 3 agree · draw last week’s high · draw taken ES Sun 20:00, NQ Sun 18:00
Day
DOWN
DOWN · 2 of 3 Triad Assets Agree
Shorts Only.
Shorts Only.
Month
Week
Day
Draw
SSMT
Calendar
MIXED3 of 6 lit
01
Together
RETRACEMENT DAYshorter targets · size down
02
The Draw
CONTINUATIONYM 19:30ES 22:00NQ 01:30
03
Confirmation
90-min cycle · bullish on the lows · ES/NQ ran, YM held · pullback
04
The Plan
FRESH SSMT · LONGSit printed · draw is taken, so this side is valid · not the likelier sideENTRY CONFIRMED · LONGS · ES/NQDraw taken. A fresh SSMT either way is the trade: SSMT, tCISD close, retest.
05
Highs & Gaps
ATHES 2.1% underNQ 2.5% under
GapsES ↓ 7,566–7,575 · 167 ptsES ↑ 7,850–7,864 · 108 ptsNQ ↓ 29,793–29,904 · 705 pts
SSMTnot at the highs · rule not in play
06
Conditions
news clearnext NY AM Q4 10:30
The setup meter
Six lights. Each one is a thing that should agree with today’s bias. More green = more of the picture lines up. Grey means nothing has happened yet.
Green means
Red means
Month
last month points the same way
last month points the other way
Week
last week points the same way
last week points the other way
Day
there is a bias today
— grey when there is none
Draw
the level was hit and price kept going
the level was hit and price turned back
SSMT
an SSMT printed with the bias
an SSMT printed against the bias
Calendar
no big news in your windows, no holiday
news in your window, or a holiday
LOADED5 or 6 green. Everything lines up. The best days.
BUILDING3 or 4 green. Half the picture. Smaller size, wait for the SSMT.
EARLY0 to 2 green. Too early, nothing has printed yet.
MIXED2 or more red. The timeframes disagree. Expect chop.
SIT OUTNo daily bias. Not a trading day.
The meter says whether the day lines up. It never says enter. Entry is always the same three steps: SSMT, then the tCISD close, then the retest.
Today’s breakdown
DOWN
draw taken · fresh SSMT only
Draw
- Low raided before your window —YM at 19:30ES at 22:00NQ at 01:30
- All three ran it — no weekly-cycle SSMT against the bias.
- Then continuation — likely shorts.
- Fresh SSMT in your window is the entry.
- No SSMT, no trade.
News
Clear.
No high-impact US news today.
No high-impact US news today.
Window
Next is NY AM Q4
10:30–12:00
10:30–12:00
Yesterday’s close · today’s bias
ES
DOWN
continuation · daily
7,758.75
raided first · the low
NQ
BOTH SIDES
reversal · daily
30,642.75
raided first · the low
YM
DOWN
continuation · daily
51,844.00
data only · not traded
Your windows
Cycles
NY AM Q1
06:00–07:30
OFFAccumulation.
NY AM Q2
07:30–09:00
OFFManipulation. True open 07:30.
NY AM Q3
09:00–10:30
OFFDistribution. The open wicks you out.
NY AM Q4
10:30–12:00
GOODEndorsed in the notes.
NY PM Q1
12:00–13:30
WEAKAccumulation. Lowest quality.
NY PM Q2
13:30–15:00
GOODManipulation. True open 13:30.
NY PM Q3
15:00–16:30
OFFDistribution. After your hours.
NY PM Q4
16:30–18:00
OFFDay closes 18:00.
True Opens
| Price | vs TDO | vs TSO London | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 7,746.25 | -13.00 | -9.75 |
| NQ | 30,623.00 | -83.75 | -83.50 |
| YM | 51,778.00 | -29.00 | -35.00 |
Risk today
- No US bank holiday today or either side of it.
- Half risk before 9:30 — the open can wick you out.
Last week’s read
UP
last week
ESUP
NQUP
YMDOWN
Status
- Draw taken
- ES 7,739.25 · Sun 20:00
- NQ 29,993.25 · Sun 18:00
- YM not yet
- Do not chase it.
SSMT · monthly cycle
Bearish SSMT forming
ES/NQ ran it, YM held.
Shorts only with a 4H bearish tCISD.
If YM runs it, the SSMT fails.
ES/NQ ran it, YM held.
Shorts only with a 4H bearish tCISD.
If YM runs it, the SSMT fails.
Month
August vs July
UP · low conviction
ES UP · NQ inside near the high · YM inside near the high
The week agrees.
Rolled 15 Sep, ES +67.75. HTF signals unreliable.
UP · low conviction
ES UP · NQ inside near the high · YM inside near the high
The week agrees.
Rolled 15 Sep, ES +67.75. HTF signals unreliable.
Calendar
Week 3 of the month
Wed 20:00 President Trump and President Xi Summit
Fri 08:30 Durable Goods Orders MoM
Wed 20:00 President Trump and President Xi Summit
Fri 08:30 Durable Goods Orders MoM
01Today You HUNT
FRESH SSMT ONLY
Bias DOWN, but the draw is already taken — yesterday’s low went before your window and price tagged the draw and kept going. Your rule: do not force the original direction. A fresh SSMT in your window, either way, is the entry. No SSMT, no trade.
LikelierSHORTSthe continuation
1Wait for a BEARISH SSMT — one index runs the previous quarter's HIGH while another fails to.
2The tCISD candle must close BULLISH. If the candle that ran the high closed bearish, step LEFT to the most recent bullish candle.
3Then wait for a candle to CLOSE BELOW that candle's open. A wick is not enough. Stop goes above the SSMT high.
Asset
Stop
Target
Risk pts
Reward pts
R
ES
7,738.25
7,843.25
8
97
—
NQ
30,564.50
31,094.75
58
472
8.1R
Levels from the tape now: the real stop is the SSMT extreme once it prints, the target is the next level. Risk and reward measured from the current price. Under 2R, no trade.
Also validLONGSthe pullback against the bias
1Wait for a BULLISH SSMT — one index runs the previous quarter's LOW while another fails to.
2The tCISD candle must close BEARISH. If the candle that ran the low closed bullish, step LEFT to the most recent bearish candle.
3Then wait for a candle to CLOSE ABOVE that candle's open. A wick is not enough. Stop goes under the SSMT low.
Asset
Stop
Target
Risk pts
Reward pts
R
ES
7,738.25
7,850.25
8
104
—
NQ
30,564.50
31,061.50
58
438
7.5R
Levels from the tape now: the real stop is the SSMT extreme once it prints, the target is the next level. Risk and reward measured from the current price. Under 2R, no trade.
Draw taken · next liquidity either way · needs a fresh SSMT + tCISD
ES7,746.25draw taken
Continuation · shorts
Unfilled liquidityLevelpts
5m gap7,744.002
prev 15m low7,738.258
Reversal · longs
Unfilled liquidityLevelpts
15m gap7,747.752
prev 90m high7,760.0014
prev 4H high7,766.7520
prev sess high7,779.2533
BIG · 4H gap7,784.7538
NQ30,623.00draw taken
Continuation · shorts
Unfilled liquidityLevelpts
prev 4H low30,607.0016
prev 15m low30,564.5058
Reversal · longs
Unfilled liquidityLevelpts
15m gap30,628.005
prev 90m high30,716.0093
prev 4H high30,750.00127
prev sess high30,813.00190
BIG · prev day high31,094.75472
02Has the draw been taken?
YM
51,844.00
RAIDED 19:30
raided · the draw
ES
7,758.75
RAIDED 22:00
raided · the draw
NQ
30,642.75
RAIDED 01:30
raided · the draw
YM went first — then CONTINUATION
Both still holding below the low (22 min), candle closing below it. No reversal, no crack. Tagged the draw and kept going.
Likely shorts, but do not force it. Entry is a fresh SSMT in your window, either way, then tCISD. No SSMT, no trade.
All three ran yesterday’s low — no weekly-cycle SSMT against the bias.
Options · only with the bias
SPY mirrors ES, QQQ mirrors NQ. Direction follows the bias — puts only today. Not advice — the maths of the chain.
In a trade and it’s chopping
First question: was the draw already hit?
Situation
Do this
A
Draw hit, chop near the target
Take profit. 70–80% off, small runner at most.
B
Draw not hit, tight chop
Early in the quarter: wait, time stop 30–45 min. Late: stop to break-even, reassess next quarter.
C
Opposing SSMTs both live
Stay. Keep the crack that matches the HTF, ignore the other. Break-even if nervous.
D
Low-probability day
Exit small or hold at break-even. Never add, never revenge.
E
Trade is against the bias (a retrace)
Break-even at the first waypoint. If the crack inverts, out. Never hold for the gaps.
20 MINNo progress and no draw hit after 20 minutes = out at break-even. Energy decays: 0–5 min strongest, 30+ min a coin flip.
NEVERAdd to it. Widen the stop. Scalp the chop on a lower timeframe. Hold without a time rule.
RE-ENTRYOnly from a fresh micro swing inside the range, half risk, first entry at break-even.
“Did I catch the move I was looking for, or is the market telling me this move isn’t real?” Caught it: exit. Not real: break-even and out. Journal it as a consolidation kill.
Pre-Trade Checklist
Confluences · 0/5 met
Confluences
✓
Draw on liquidity identifiedGATE
✓
15 min SSMT + tCISDGATE
✓
5 min SSMT + tCISDGATE
✓
Entered on the retest · stop at the SSMT high/lowGATE
✓
Inside my window · calendar clearGATE
Daily Bias Hit Ratedid the draw get hit the way the bias called it · ES and NQ · last 24 sessions
AM09:00 – 12:00 New York
59%
draw hit · 17 graded · thin
Last 2059%
Closed with the bias47%
No call6
🔥 3 draws hit in a row
67%
draw hit · 21 graded
Last 2070%
Closed with the bias38%
No call2
🔥 4 draws hit in a row
PM12:00 – 16:00 New York
71%
draw hit · 17 graded · thin
Last 2071%
Closed with the bias65%
No call5
71%
draw hit · 21 graded
Last 2070%
Closed with the bias52%
No call1
🔥 3 draws hit in a row
Overall09:00 – 16:00 New York
71%
draw hit · 14 graded · thin
Last 2071%
Closed with the bias64%
No call8
78%
draw hit · 18 graded · thin
Last 2078%
Closed with the bias50%
No call4
🔥 3 draws hit in a row
Running draw hit rate · ES and NQ
AMPMOverall— ES- - NQ
The draw is the test: an UP bias names yesterday’s high, a DOWN bias yesterday’s low, and a hit means price reached it at any point in the session up to the end of the window. “Closed with” is only a footnote: once the draw is hit, the retracement that follows says nothing about the call. Reads with no side — both ways, inconclusive, no read — are logged but left out of the rate. Each call is graded against what was locked at the time, never re-derived afterwards. Rows marked est were reconstructed from the candles that existed at 09:00 and 12:00 that day, before the tracker existed.
Session ledger · ES
| Session | AM | PM | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 24 Sep | — | — | no call |
| Wed 23 Sep | no call | no call | no call |
| Tue 22 Sep | UP draw HIT · closed against | — | — |
| Mon 21 Sep | UP draw HIT · closed with | no call | no call |
| Fri 18 Sep | UP draw HIT · closed against | UP draw HIT · closed with | UP draw HIT · closed with |
| Thu 17 Sep | DOWN draw missed · closed with | DOWN draw missed · closed against | DOWN draw missed · closed with |
| Wed 16 Sep | DOWN draw missed · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with |
| Tue 15 Sep | UP draw missed · closed against | UP draw missed · closed with | UP draw missed · closed against |
| Mon 14 Sep | no call | no call | no call |
| Fri 11 Sep | DOWN draw missed · closed with | DOWN draw missed · closed with | DOWN draw missed · closed with |
| Thu 10 Sep | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with |
| Wed 09 Sep | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed with |
| Tue 08 Sep | DOWN draw missed · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with |
| Mon 07 Sep | no call | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | no call |
| Fri 04 Sep | UP draw missed · closed against | UP draw missed · closed with | UP draw missed · closed against |
| Thu 03 Sep | UP draw HIT · closed with | UP draw HIT · closed against | UP draw HIT · closed with |
| Wed 02 Sep | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed against |
| Tue 01 Sep | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with |
| Mon 31 Aug | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed against |
| Fri 28 Aug | UP draw HIT · closed against | UP draw HIT · closed against | UP draw HIT · closed against |
| Thu 27 Aug | no call | no call | no call |
| Wed 26 Aug | no call | UP draw missed · closed with | no call |
| Tue 25 Aug | no call | no call | no call |
| Mon 24 Aug | UP draw missed · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | no call |
Session ledger · NQ
| Session | AM | PM | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 24 Sep | — | — | no call |
| Wed 23 Sep | UP draw HIT · closed against | UP draw HIT · closed with | UP draw HIT · closed against |
| Tue 22 Sep | UP draw HIT · closed with | — | — |
| Mon 21 Sep | UP draw HIT · closed with | UP draw HIT · closed with | UP draw HIT · closed with |
| Fri 18 Sep | UP draw HIT · closed against | UP draw HIT · closed with | UP draw HIT · closed with |
| Thu 17 Sep | DOWN draw missed · closed against | DOWN draw missed · closed against | DOWN draw missed · closed against |
| Wed 16 Sep | DOWN draw missed · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with |
| Tue 15 Sep | UP draw missed · closed against | UP draw missed · closed against | UP draw missed · closed against |
| Mon 14 Sep | UP draw missed · closed with | UP draw missed · closed against | UP draw missed · closed with |
| Fri 11 Sep | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with |
| Thu 10 Sep | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed against |
| Wed 09 Sep | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed against |
| Tue 08 Sep | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed with |
| Mon 07 Sep | no call | DOWN draw missed · closed against | no call |
| Fri 04 Sep | UP draw HIT · closed against | UP draw HIT · closed with | UP draw HIT · closed with |
| Thu 03 Sep | UP draw HIT · closed with | UP draw HIT · closed against | UP draw HIT · closed with |
| Wed 02 Sep | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed against |
| Tue 01 Sep | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed against |
| Mon 31 Aug | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | DOWN draw HIT · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed against |
| Fri 28 Aug | UP draw HIT · closed against | UP draw HIT · closed against | UP draw HIT · closed against |
| Thu 27 Aug | no call | no call | no call |
| Wed 26 Aug | DOWN draw missed · closed against | UP draw missed · closed with | no call |
| Tue 25 Aug | DOWN draw missed · closed with | DOWN draw missed · closed against | DOWN draw missed · closed with |
| Mon 24 Aug | UP draw missed · closed against | DOWN draw HIT · closed with | no call |
Ask about today
Your trading oracle. It knows your model, your notes, today’s read and whatever you’ve ticked. It answers only about your trading, and it will not tell you to buy or sell. Start a message with Remember: and it keeps that lesson for good. Paste a chart screenshot and it reads the chart too.
What am I waiting for right now?
Why is the bias what it is today?
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